Executive Summary

The proposed trilateral defence agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern and South Asian security architecture. For Singapore, this development carries implications for regional stability, defence partnerships, and maritime security interests.

Background Context

Following nearly a year of negotiations, the three nations have drafted a defence agreement currently under deliberation. Pakistani Defence Production Minister Raza Hayat Harraj confirmed the pact is separate from existing bilateral arrangements, while Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized the need for regional cooperation to counter external hegemonies and terrorism.

Strategic Implications for Singapore

1. Regional Security Architecture

Shifting Power Dynamics: The trilateral pact signals a potential realignment in Islamic world defence cooperation, moving beyond traditional Western-centric alliances. This could create a new axis of military-industrial collaboration spanning three continents.

Precedent for Regional Groupings: If successful, this model could inspire similar security arrangements in Southeast Asia, potentially affecting ASEAN’s consensus-based security framework.

2. Defence Industry and Trade

Competition in Defence Markets: Turkey’s growing defence industry (drones, armored vehicles) combined with Pakistani production capabilities and Saudi financial resources could create a formidable competitor in regional arms markets where Singapore also operates.

Technology Transfer Concerns: Enhanced cooperation among these nations may accelerate military technology proliferation, affecting Singapore’s technological edge in certain defence systems.

3. Maritime Security

Indian Ocean Dynamics: Pakistan’s naval presence in the Arabian Sea, combined with Turkish naval ambitions and Saudi interests, could alter Indian Ocean security calculus. Singapore’s critical sea lines of communication through the Malacca Strait and onward to the Middle East could be affected.

Counter-piracy Operations: The pact may lead to joint naval operations in waters relevant to Singapore’s shipping interests, potentially creating new partnership opportunities or complications.

Singapore’s Strategic Position

Existing Relationships

With Saudi Arabia:

• Growing economic ties through investments and energy security
• Moderate defence cooperation through training and technology transfers
• Shared interest in counter-terrorism

With Turkey:

• Limited but professional defence relationship
• Economic cooperation through trade and investment
• Both are secular, multi-religious states navigating religious diversity

With Pakistan:

• Historical military ties dating to the 1960s-1970s
• Professional exchanges and training programs
• Balanced approach given Pakistan-India tensions

Potential Challenges

1. Balancing Act with India: Singapore maintains strong defence ties with India, which views the Pakistan-Saudi-Turkey axis with concern. Singapore must carefully navigate these competing relationships.
2. Sectarian Dimensions: The pact brings together Sunni-majority nations, potentially deepening sectarian divisions in the Middle East that could affect regional stability.
3. Extra-Regional Power Reactions: China, the US, and Russia may respond to this pact, creating ripple effects in Singapore’s broader strategic environment.

Outlook and Scenarios

Scenario 1: Limited Implementation (40% probability)

The agreement remains largely symbolic with minimal operational integration. Impact on Singapore would be negligible, with business-as-usual in defence and diplomatic relations.

Scenario 2: Moderate Cooperation (45% probability)

The three nations achieve meaningful collaboration in specific areas like joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and selective defence production. Singapore would need to:

• Recalibrate engagement with each partner individually
• Monitor technology transfers that could affect regional balance
• Maintain equidistance from regional rivalries

Scenario 3: Full-Scale Alliance (15% probability)

The pact evolves into a formal military alliance with integrated command structures and mutual defence obligations. This would represent a major shift requiring Singapore to:

• Fundamentally reassess Middle Eastern security relationships
• Strengthen ties with counterbalancing powers
• Enhance independent defence capabilities

Recommendations for Singapore

Diplomatic Engagement

1. Early Dialogue: Engage all three countries bilaterally to understand their strategic intentions and reassure them of Singapore’s neutrality in regional disputes.
2. ASEAN Coordination: Brief ASEAN partners on potential implications and coordinate responses to maintain Southeast Asian strategic autonomy.
3. Maintain Balance: Strengthen parallel relationships with India, Israel, and Gulf states not party to the agreement to maintain balanced influence.

Defence and Security

1. Intelligence Monitoring: Enhance surveillance of military-technical cooperation under the pact, particularly weapons systems that could affect Singapore’s technological advantage.
2. Exercise Diplomacy: Continue bilateral military exercises with each nation separately while avoiding entanglement in their collective arrangements.
3. Maritime Focus: Strengthen naval cooperation with like-minded nations to ensure freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.

Economic Strategy

1. Investment Diversification: While continuing economic engagement with all three nations, avoid over-concentration in any single partner.
2. Defence Industry Positioning: Identify niche capabilities where Singapore’s defence industry can remain competitive despite the new trilateral cooperation.
3. Energy Security: Given Saudi Arabia’s importance to Singapore’s energy security, maintain robust economic ties while managing defence sensitivities.

Long-Term Considerations

For Singapore’s Foreign Policy

The pact underscores the trend toward regional security arrangements outside Western frameworks. Singapore should:

• Maintain its principle of not joining military alliances while expanding practical security cooperation
• Position itself as a neutral convener for dialogue between competing regional groupings
• Strengthen multilateral institutions like ASEAN and the UN as counterweights to exclusive alliances

For Regional Stability

The agreement’s success or failure will test whether regional powers can effectively manage their own security without external involvement. Singapore benefits from:

• Regional stability that protects trade routes
• Reduced big power competition in Southeast Asia
• Precedents for inclusive, non-threatening security cooperation

Conclusion

The Pakistan-Saudi-Turkey defence pact represents both opportunities and challenges for Singapore. While geographically distant, its implications ripple through maritime security, defence industry dynamics, and the broader architecture of Asian security.

Singapore’s optimal response involves:

• Careful monitoring without overreaction
• Balanced engagement with all parties
• Strategic patience as the pact’s true nature becomes clear
• Strengthening Singapore’s own defence capabilities and partnerships

The key is maintaining Singapore’s strategic autonomy while adapting to a more multipolar and regionally-organized security environment. As Minister Fidan noted, regional nations cooperating on security could reduce external interference—a principle Singapore has long advocated through ASEAN. The question is whether this particular arrangement promotes stability or deepens divisions.

Singapore’s response should reflect its fundamental interests: freedom of navigation, economic openness, territorial sovereignty, and a rules-based international order. How the trilateral pact affects these interests will determine the appropriate calibration of Singapore’s policies toward this emerging security arrangement.