Case Study: The Erosion of Political Capital

The Numbers Tell the Story

Donald Trump’s first year back in the White House reveals a classic case of rapid political capital depletion. His approval rating fell 10 percentage points in twelve months, from 47% at inauguration to 37% by December 2025. This decline reflects a recurring pattern in American politics where campaign promises meet governing realities.

Three Voter Profiles

The Disappointed Believer: Michelle Sims A 50-year-old Pennsylvania resident on medical leave represents the voter segment that had high expectations for economic relief. She supported Trump specifically for cost-of-living improvements but found the results insufficient. While acknowledging lower gas prices, she remains concerned about grocery costs and welfare cuts. Her lukewarm support (“to a certain extent”) exemplifies soft support that could evaporate entirely.

The Frustrated Loyalist: Joe Kramley This 83-year-old Navy veteran voted primarily on immigration concerns but has grown weary of Trump’s leadership style and unfulfilled economic promises. His comment—”I wish he would shut up and just do what he is going to do”—captures a critical insight: even among supporters, Trump’s communication approach has become a liability. Kramley’s conditional future support (“depends on who is running”) suggests he’s a persuadable voter rather than committed base.

The Ideological Supporter: Gary Armstrong The 68-year-old insurance salesman represents Trump’s stable floor of support. He explicitly separates Trump the person from Trump’s policies, stating he likes “the decisions he is making and direction of the country” rather than Trump himself. This pragmatic conservatism, defined more by opposition to “the far left” than enthusiasm for Trump, may prove more durable.

The Bucks County Bellwether

Bucks County’s political shift offers a microcosm of Trump’s challenge. After narrowly flipping Republican in 2024 for the first time since 1988, the county swung back to Democrats in 2025 local elections. The newly elected Democratic sheriff’s successful opposition to ICE cooperation demonstrates how local officials can resist federal priorities, fragmenting Trump’s immigration agenda.

Key Failure Points

Economic Expectations Gap: Voters prioritized inflation relief and affordability. Despite lower gas prices, overall cost-of-living concerns persist, creating a tangible disappointment among swing voters who backed Trump specifically for economic reasons.

Chaotic Governance Perception: The quote “People just want government to work. They do not want chaos” from the Bucks County sheriff encapsulates a broader fatigue with Trump’s governing style, even among some who support his policy directions.

Overreach on Non-Priority Issues: Trump’s focus on acquiring Greenland struck even supporters like Kramley as “ridiculous,” suggesting that pursuing ambitious but tangential goals may alienate pragmatic voters focused on kitchen-table economics.

Outlook: The 2026 Midterm Challenge

Electoral Mathematics

The 2026 midterms present a critical test. Historically, first-term presidents face headwinds in midterm elections, and Trump’s approval rating puts him in particularly vulnerable territory. With Congress control at stake, several scenarios emerge:

Pessimistic Scenario: If approval remains in the mid-30s, Republicans could face significant losses in swing districts, potentially losing control of one or both chambers of Congress. This would effectively end Trump’s legislative agenda for his final two years.

Moderate Scenario: Trump stabilizes support around 40-42% through targeted economic wins or external events. Republicans maintain narrow control but with reduced majorities, forcing greater compromise.

Optimistic Scenario: Economic conditions improve significantly, inflation genuinely moderates, and Trump’s approval recovers to the mid-40s. Republicans hold or slightly expand their position, though this seems least likely given current trajectories.

Strategic Pivots Available

Trump has returned to campaign rallies, attempting to recreate 2024 energy. However, this approach faces diminishing returns when voters expect governing results rather than campaign promises. More effective strategies might include:

• Targeted Economic Relief: Visible, tangible benefits to working-class voters in swing states
• Selective Discipline: Reducing focus on controversial side issues to emphasize core economic agenda
• State-Level Coordination: Working with Republican governors to deliver measurable improvements in swing states

The Democratic Opportunity and Challenge

Democrats have capitalized on local dissatisfaction but face their own credibility gap. As Kramley noted, he sees “no viable Democratic presidential candidate” for 2028. This suggests Democrats are winning by default rather than positive enthusiasm, a fragile position that could reverse if they fail to offer compelling alternatives.

Wild Cards

Several factors could dramatically shift the outlook:

• Economic Conditions: A recession would devastate Trump’s support; robust growth with moderating inflation could reverse his decline
• International Crises: Foreign policy emergencies typically boost presidential approval, at least initially
• Democratic Overreach: If Democrats win Congressional control and pursue aggressive investigations or impeachment, it could rally Republican base support for Trump
• Health and Age: At 79 in 2026, questions about Trump’s capacity for a full second term may intensify

Singapore Impact: Navigating Uncertainty

Economic Relationship Under Strain

Singapore’s position as a major Asian trading hub makes it particularly vulnerable to Trump’s erratic trade policies. Several concerns emerge:

Tariff Uncertainty: While the article mentions US tariffs affecting Singapore’s export growth (exports grew 4.8% in 2025 but pace eased in December), Trump’s weakening domestic position may lead him to either:

• Double down on protectionist measures to appeal to his base
• Moderate his approach if economic advisers convince him tariffs contribute to inflation

Supply Chain Volatility: Singapore’s role in global semiconductor and electronics supply chains means continued US-China tensions create ongoing disruption. A weakened Trump may lack political capital to pursue coherent industrial policy, leading to reactive, unpredictable measures.

Strategic Implications

Hedging Strategy Validation: Singapore’s longstanding approach of maintaining strong relationships with both the US and China appears prescient. Trump’s domestic weakness reduces American reliability as a strategic partner, reinforcing the need for balanced regional engagement.

ASEAN Leadership Opportunity: American distraction with domestic politics creates space for Singapore to strengthen ASEAN cohesion and advance regional economic integration independent of US frameworks.

Defense and Security Considerations: While Singapore values its security relationship with the US, Trump’s transactional approach and domestic political weakness raise questions about American commitment to regional stability. The focus on acquiring Greenland while approval falls suggests misaligned priorities that could affect Asian allies.

Diplomatic Positioning

Singapore’s government must navigate several tensions:

Avoid Premature Assumptions: While Trump’s approval has fallen, counting him out would be premature given his history of political resilience and the absence of strong Democratic alternatives.

Maintain Relationship Flexibility: Prepare for potential shifts in US policy following 2026 midterms, whether that means a weakened Trump presidency forced to compromise or a more aggressive Trump trying to rally his base through foreign policy actions.

Strengthen Alternative Partnerships: Use this period of American domestic focus to deepen ties with the EU, UK, Japan, South Korea, and Australia as counterweights to both US and Chinese influence.

Economic Contingency Planning

Diversification Acceleration: The uncertainty around US economic policy should accelerate Singapore’s efforts to diversify trade relationships, particularly through RCEP and potential CPTPP expansion.

Attract Neutral Capital: Singapore can position itself as a stable, predictable jurisdiction for companies and investors seeking to avoid US-China tensions and American political volatility.

Technology and Innovation Hub: As the US becomes consumed by political battles, Singapore has an opportunity to attract talent and investment in emerging technologies, particularly from multinationals hedging their bets.

The 2028 Presidential Election Shadow

Singapore’s strategic planning must extend beyond Trump’s current term. The dynamics of the 2028 election will begin shaping US policy by late 2026. Possible scenarios include:

• Trump Decline: If Trump becomes a lame duck after 2026 midterm losses, US policy may become more stable but also more gridlocked
• Trump Resurgence: Successful midterms could embolden Trump to pursue more aggressive policies in his final two years
• Post-Trump Republican Party: The nature of Republican candidates for 2028 will depend partly on Trump’s success or failure, with implications for US-Asia policy continuity

Conclusion

For Singapore, Trump’s declining approval rating represents both challenge and opportunity. The challenge lies in navigating increased US policy unpredictability as Trump faces domestic political pressure. The opportunity exists in strengthening Singapore’s position as a stable, neutral hub while America turns inward.

The key lesson from Trump’s first year is that even significant electoral victories can quickly erode when governing realities meet campaign promises. For Singapore, this reinforces the wisdom of strategic hedging, economic diversification, and avoiding over-dependence on any single major power—including the United States.

Singapore should prepare for multiple scenarios while recognizing that American politics has entered a period of sustained volatility that will likely extend well beyond Trump’s presidency, regardless of whether he serves one or two terms.