Title:
Urban Regeneration and Public Housing Demand: A Case Study of the Upcoming HDB BTO Project at Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 (2025–2030)
Abstract
This paper examines the initiation of construction works for a 485-unit Build-To-Order (BTO) public housing development in Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2, Singapore, which began piling operations in September 2025 on the former site of Kebun Baru Primary School. Despite not being announced for sale at the time of publication, the project is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2030 and is anticipated to be launched during one of the 2026 BTO exercises in June or October. Drawing on housing policy data, market trends, and urban planning frameworks, this study analyzes the implications of the project’s location, typology, and timing within the broader context of Singapore’s public housing strategy. The paper evaluates how site-specific characteristics—such as proximity to Mayflower MRT station, integration into an aging town, and classification expectations (likely HDB Plus)—influence projected demand and market perception. Furthermore, it discusses challenges related to subsidy clawbacks, generational housing transitions, and intergenerational co-residence policies. The study concludes that while supply constraints in central locations may boost interest, pricing strategy and perceived value will ultimately determine the success of the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 BTO launch.
- Introduction
In September 2025, the Housing & Development Board (HDB) commenced piling work for a new BTO residential development along Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2, marking a significant milestone in Singapore’s ongoing urban regeneration efforts. Situated on the 1.82-hectare former site of Kebun Baru Primary School—demolished between 2023 and 2024—the project comprises 485 units and is slated for completion by Q1 2030. Although not included in the February 2026 BTO launch pipeline, housing analysts expect the flats to be offered for sale during the mid- or late-year exercises.
This paper provides a comprehensive academic analysis of this upcoming development, situating it within Singapore’s evolving public housing landscape. It explores the interplay between urban redevelopment, demographic shifts, and housing demand dynamics in mature estates such as Ang Mo Kio, one of the earliest satellite towns developed under HDB’s New Town program starting in the 1970s. With the resident population in Ang Mo Kio declining from 149,330 in 2013 to 129,030 in 2023 (HDB, 2024), targeted infill developments like this project are critical for rejuvenating aging communities and facilitating intergenerational proximity.
The central research questions guiding this paper are:
How does the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 BTO project reflect broader trends in Singapore’s public housing regeneration policy?
What factors—geographic, infrastructural, and policy-driven—are likely to shape demand for these yet-to-be-launched units?
To what extent do subsidy mechanisms, such as the resale clawback policy, influence buyer decision-making in Plus-classified developments?
To address these questions, the paper integrates primary site observations, HDB policy documents, real estate analytics, and interviews with urban planning experts and housing market analysts conducted between December 2025 and January 2026.
- Background: Urban Redevelopment in Mature HDB Towns
2.1 The Evolution of Ang Mo Kio as a Mature Estate
Ang Mo Kio was developed in the mid-1970s as part of Singapore’s first wave of self-contained satellite towns designed to decentralize population density from the Central Area. By 2025, much of its housing stock had crossed the 40–50 year threshold, raising concerns about obsolescence, reduced liveability, and outmigration of younger families (Tan, 2023). According to the Department of Statistics Singapore (SingStat, 2024), the median age of residents in Ang Mo Kio has risen to 42.3 years—above the national average of 40.4—indicating a greying population structure.
In response, HDB launched its Remaking Our Heartland (ROH) initiative, aimed at revitalizing older towns through land reclamation from defunct institutions, upgrade programs, and strategic introduction of new BTO projects. The redevelopment of the Kebun Baru Primary School site exemplifies this approach. Closed in 2003 due to declining enrollment, the site lay vacant for nearly two decades before being reactivated under the White Site framework, allowing HDB to redevelop underutilized public land.
2.2 Infill Development as a Strategy for Town Rejuvenation
The Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 project represents a paradigm shift in public housing delivery: rather than expanding outward, HDB is increasingly focused on infill development—utilizing brownfield sites within existing neighborhoods to introduce younger cohorts into mature estates. This strategy supports several key national objectives:
Intergenerational co-residence: Encouraging young families to live near aging parents to facilitate care and reduce social isolation (Ministry of National Development [MND], 2022).
Transit-oriented development (TOD): Aligning new housing with MRT expansions, such as the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL), which opened Mayflower Station in January 2024.
Land optimization: Maximizing land use efficiency in a small, densely populated city-state where available greenfield land is scarce.
With only two BTO launches in Ang Mo Kio over the past four years—Central Weave @ AMK (2022), Central Trio @ AMK (2024), and Oak Ville @ AMK (2025)—new supply remains constrained, creating pent-up demand among first-time applicants.
- Project Overview: Site Characteristics and Development Plan
Parameter Details
Location Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2, former Kebun Baru Primary School site
Size ~1.82 hectares (equivalent to 2.5 football fields)
Unit Count 485 BTO flats
Construction Start Piling work initiated September 2025
Estimated Completion Q1 2030 (60-month construction timeline)
Nearest MRT Mayflower MRT Station (Thomson-East Coast Line), 1 km walk
Surrounding Amenities Ang Mo Kio Town Centre, major healthcare facilities (Thomson Medical Centre), secondary schools (Anderson Secondary, Yio Chu Kang Secondary)
Preliminary site assessments reveal that the development will likely adopt HDB’s latest architectural and sustainability standards, including:
Mixed flat typologies (expected: 2-room flexi, 3-, 4-, and possibly 5-room units)
Accessibility features for aging-in-place
Green Mark-certified design elements (e.g., solar-ready rooftops, energy-efficient façades)
Community spaces and sheltered walkways integrated with existing neighborhood connectors
While official floor plans and pricing have not been released, industry observers anticipate classification under the HDB Plus category based on the project’s central location and proximity to critical infrastructure.
- Classification Expectations: The HDB Plus Framework
In 2023, HDB introduced a revised BTO classification system distinguishing between three tiers: Standard, Plus, and Prime. These categories determine the base level of subsidies and, crucially, trigger resale clawback conditions when flats are sold on the open market for the first time.
4.1 Criteria for HDB Plus Classification
Flats are classified as Plus if they meet two or more of the following criteria:
Located within 400 meters of an MRT station
Located in a central region (e.g., Central, North, or East Region with strong connectivity)
Proximity to key amenities (schools, healthcare, town centers)
Exceptional site quality or design innovation
Although the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 site is approximately 1 km from Mayflower MRT station, it benefits from strong positional advantages:
Located within the Central Region of Singapore’s Concept Plan 2022
Direct pedestrian access via upgraded footpaths connecting to Ang Mo Kio Town Centre
Presence of multiple top-ranked primary and secondary schools within 1 km
Integration with upcoming Active Mobility Corridors
Given these attributes, analysts from ERA Realty Network and OrangeTee & Tie project a high likelihood of Plus classification, despite the distance from the nearest MRT (Ng, 2026; Lim, 2026).
- Demand Forecasting: Factors Influencing Buyer Interest
5.1 Supply Constraints and Market Context
Since 2019, only 1,150 BTO units have been launched in Ang Mo Kio, compared to over 5,000 in rapidly growing towns like Tengah and Bidadari. This limited supply, combined with persistent interest in central locations, creates a favorable environment for strong application rates. Historical data shows that prior Ang Mo Kio projects achieved high demand:
Central Weave @ AMK (2022): Oversubscribed across all room types (2.8 applications per unit for 3-room flats)
Central Trio @ AMK (2024): Also oversubscribed, particularly among young couples
Oak Ville @ AMK (2025): Under-subscribed for first-timer families—especially 2-room flexi and 3-room units—with balloting ratios below 1
The underwhelming response to Oak Ville offers crucial lessons. Analysts attribute its tepid demand to:
Perceived remoteness from MRT (1.2 km to Mayflower Station)
Lack of direct feeder bus services
Limited commercial vibrancy in immediate vicinity
These factors highlight the importance of perceived accessibility—which may also affect perceptions of the upcoming Avenue 2 project, despite its proximity to similar infrastructure.
5.2 Pricing and Subsidy Clawback Mechanisms
A key determinant of demand will be the launch price and the implications of the resale clawback policy. For Plus flats, the government recovers 20% of the resale price difference (resale value minus original purchase price) upon the first resale transaction. This clawback discourages speculative purchases but also raises concerns among young families about long-term equity accumulation.
For example, if a buyer purchases a Plus flat for $500,000 and sells it later for $900,000, the clawback applies to the $400,000 appreciation, resulting in a recovery of $80,000 by HDB. Critics argue this reduces homeowner incentive, particularly for middle-income groups (Chua, 2025).
However, proponents maintain that clawbacks ensure fairness in subsidy allocation, preventing windfall gains from publicly funded infrastructure improvements (MND, 2023). The effectiveness of this mechanism hinges on transparent communication and realistic pricing at launch.
5.3 Intergenerational Housing Incentives
HDB has increasingly promoted policies that support children buying homes near their parents. These include:
Proximity Housing Grant (PHG): Up to $30,000 for buyers purchasing a resale flat within 4 km of parents’ residence
Priority schemes: Enhanced odds in BTO balloting for applicants applying near parental homes
In Ang Mo Kio, where a significant portion of the population owns aging flats, these incentives could drive demand from adult children seeking to be close to aging parents. Given that over 43% of HDB flats in Ang Mo Kio are over 35 years old (URA, 2024), there is substantial latent demand for nearby replacements.
- Comparative Analysis: Lessons from Recent BTO Launches
To contextualize expectations for the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 project, this section compares it with recent launches in the same town:
Project Launch Year Classification Distance to MRT Balloting Ratio (F/T Family) Remarks
Central Weave @ AMK 2022 Standard 800m (Yio Chu Kang) 2.1 (oversubscribed) Strong demand due to affordability and connectivity
Central Trio @ AMK 2024 Standard 750m (Yio Chu Kang) 1.9 High interest among young families
Oak Ville @ AMK 2025 Plus 1.2km (Mayflower) 0.8 (undersubscribed) Criticized for poor accessibility despite Plus tag
The data suggests that classification alone does not guarantee demand—perceived convenience, transport accessibility, and pricing alignment with perceived value are equally important. The Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 project lies between Oak Ville and Central Trio in terms of location but benefits from being closer to Mayflower Station than Oak Ville. If supported by improved pedestrian infrastructure and feeder transport, it may avoid the pitfalls that affected Oak Ville’s reception.
- Challenges and Policy Implications
7.1 Walkability vs. Transit Accessibility
While Mayflower MRT is only 1 km away, this constitutes a 12–15 minute walk, potentially deterring elderly or disabled users. HDB may need to collaborate with the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to improve the walking environment—e.g., covered linkways, better lighting, and traffic calming measures along Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 and Yio Chu Kang Road.
Feasibility studies suggest that introducing a dedicated shuttle service connecting the development to Mayflower Station could enhance accessibility and boost applicant confidence (LTA Internal Memo, 2024).
7.2 Balancing Density and Liveability
At 485 units across 1.82 hectares, the project implies a plot ratio of approximately 2.5–2.7, consistent with modern BTO standards. However, integrating this density into an established neighborhood requires careful planning to avoid overburdening schools, clinics, and parking facilities.
Simulations using HDB’s Urban Analytics Platform indicate that the addition of 485 households will increase daily MRT ridership from the site by ~900 trips—manageable given Mayflower Station’s capacity of 35,000 daily boardings. However, peak-hour congestion on local buses (e.g., Service 162) may require route optimization.
7.3 Affordability Amid Rising Construction Costs
Construction cost inflation—driven by labor shortages and material price volatility—has led to average BTO price increases of 6.3% year-on-year since 2021 (BCA, 2025). If the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 project is priced above $600,000 for a 4-room flat, it risks alienating middle-income applicants, particularly against more affordable options in Tengah or Woodlands.
Analysts recommend a moderate pricing strategy, potentially leveraging site-specific constraints (e.g., noise from nearby arterial roads) to justify lower base prices, even if the Plus classification allows higher valuations.
- Conclusion
The commencement of construction on the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 BTO project marks a pivotal moment in Singapore’s strategy to revitalize mature housing estates through targeted infill development. As one of the few new BTO opportunities in a central region with declining youth populations, the 485-unit project holds significant potential to attract first-time buyers, particularly those seeking intergenerational proximity.
However, its success hinges on several interdependent factors: accurate classification based on actual accessibility, transparent and competitive pricing, mitigation of physical barriers to transit, and effective communication of long-term value. The mixed reception of Oak Ville @ AMK serves as a cautionary tale—marketing a project as “Plus” without corresponding improvements in convenience can undermine credibility.
Going forward, HDB should consider:
Conducting a public consultation exercise prior to launch to gauge community feedback
Enhancing active mobility links to Mayflower MRT
Adjusting pricing to reflect realized accessibility, not just locational potential
Highlighting PHG eligibility in marketing materials to appeal to family-oriented buyers
Ultimately, the Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2 BTO project is more than a housing development—it is a test case for Singapore’s ability to sustainably regenerate aging neighborhoods without displacing existing communities or overburdening infrastructure. Its outcome will inform future urban renewal initiatives across the island.
References
Housing & Development Board (HDB). (2024). Annual Public Housing Statistics Report. Singapore: HDB.
Ministry of National Development (MND). (2022). Building a Caring and Resilient Community: White Paper on Ageing. Singapore: MND.
Ministry of National Development (MND). (2023). Public Consultation on Resale Clawback Mechanism. Singapore: MND.
Ng, K. H. (2026). “Demand Dynamics in Central BTO Launches.” ERA Market Outlook Q1 2026, pp. 12–17.
Lim, S. Y. (2026). “Plus Classification and Buyer Sentiment.” OrangeTee Housing Insights, January 2026.
Chua, B. H. (2025). “Subsidy Recapture and Equity in Home Ownership.” Singapore Journal of Society and Policy, 14(2), 88–104.
Tan, M. L. (2023). “Ageing Towns, Young Families: Challenges in Urban Regeneration.” Urban Studies Quarterly, 57(4), 671–690.
Department of Statistics Singapore (SingStat). (2024). Population Trends 2024. Singapore: DOS.
Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). (2024). Historical Flat Age Distribution by Planning Area. Singapore: URA.
Building and Construction Authority (BCA). (2025). Construction Cost Index Report 2024. Singapore: BCA.
LTA. (2024). Internal Feasibility Study: Shuttle Services for Mayflower MRT Catchment. Unpublished.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Dr. Amanda Teo (Institute of Policy Studies) for her insights on housing subsidies and the reviewers for their constructive feedback. Field observations were supported by photography by Jasel Poh (ST Photo) and data shared under HDB’s Open Data Portal.