Analysis: How Trump’s Latin American Energy Diplomacy Could Reshape Asian Geopolitics
Singapore, January 28, 2026
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s tacit confirmation that her government has halted oil shipments to Cuba marks more than just a regional policy shift in the Americas—it signals a potential recalibration of global energy flows and diplomatic alignments that could have far-reaching implications for Singapore and Southeast Asia.
The Immediate Crisis
Cuba now faces an unprecedented energy stranglehold. Venezuela, historically the island’s primary supplier, has sent no crude or fuel for approximately a month following the January 3 capture of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces. Mexico, which supplied around 5,000 barrels per day in 2025—making it Cuba’s second-largest source—has now suspended shipments under apparent pressure from the Trump administration.
For Cuba, this represents an existential crisis. The island’s economy, already devastated by decades of embargo and recent economic mismanagement, relies heavily on imported oil for electricity generation, transportation, and basic industrial activity. Rolling blackouts and fuel shortages are likely to intensify, potentially triggering social unrest.
Singapore’s Strategic Concerns
While geographically distant, this development carries several implications for Singapore’s strategic interests:
1. Precedent of U.S. Energy Coercion
The Trump administration’s success in leveraging its influence to cut off Cuba’s oil supply establishes a concerning precedent for small nations heavily dependent on international trade. Singapore, as a major oil refining and trading hub, has long maintained its prosperity through neutrality and open commerce.
The willingness of Mexico—a nation with its own strong sovereignty traditions—to bow to U.S. pressure suggests an increasingly assertive American approach to using energy access as a geopolitical weapon. This could complicate Singapore’s careful balancing act between the United States and China, particularly if Washington seeks to restrict energy flows to nations it deems adversarial.
2. Oil Market Volatility
Singapore’s economy is intricately tied to global oil markets. As the world’s third-largest oil refining center and home to Asia’s largest oil trading hub, any disruption to established supply chains creates both opportunities and risks.
The Cuba crisis, while small in absolute volume (approximately 5,000 barrels per day from Mexico), contributes to broader market uncertainty. With Venezuelan supplies also offline due to political instability, roughly 8,000-10,000 barrels per day of Caribbean supply has vanished. While this represents a tiny fraction of global demand (approximately 100 million barrels per day), it adds to existing pressures from Middle Eastern tensions and OPEC production decisions.
Singapore’s oil traders and refiners must navigate this volatility. Higher oil prices could boost margins for some operations, but prolonged instability threatens the predictable flows that underpin Singapore’s role as a regional energy hub.
3. Shipping and Maritime Security Implications
Cuba’s energy crisis could have knock-on effects for Caribbean maritime security—a region through which significant volumes of Asian-bound trade pass via the Panama Canal. Economic desperation in Cuba could potentially fuel migration crises, increase piracy risks, or lead to other forms of regional instability that ultimately affect global shipping lanes.
Singapore, as one of the world’s busiest ports and a nation whose prosperity depends on secure sea lanes, has a vested interest in maritime stability globally, including in the Caribbean and Central American waters that connect the Atlantic and Pacific.
4. ASEAN Solidarity and Non-Alignment Principles
Mexico’s capitulation—despite President Sheinbaum’s framing of the decision as “sovereign”—raises questions about the viability of non-aligned foreign policy in an era of intensifying great power competition. Singapore has long championed ASEAN’s principles of non-interference and independence, even as it maintains strong defense ties with the United States.
If even a nation of Mexico’s size and economic significance cannot resist U.S. pressure on energy policy, what does this mean for smaller Southeast Asian nations that might face similar dilemmas regarding trade with China, Myanmar, or other countries that fall afoul of Washington?
The situation serves as a reminder that Singapore’s security ultimately rests not just on military deterrence or economic prosperity, but on a rules-based international order where small nations’ sovereignty is respected.
Regional Energy Security Lessons
For Southeast Asia, the Cuba crisis offers several lessons:
Diversification is Essential: Cuba’s over-reliance on Venezuela left it catastrophically vulnerable when that supply was cut off. ASEAN nations, including Singapore, have long understood the importance of diversified energy sources. Singapore imports natural gas from multiple countries via pipeline and LNG, maintains strategic petroleum reserves, and is investing heavily in renewable energy and regional grid connections.
Political Risk Cannot Be Ignored: Energy security is not merely about geology and infrastructure—it’s fundamentally about geopolitics. The Cuba situation demonstrates how quickly political changes can disrupt decades-old supply relationships. Southeast Asian nations must factor political risk into their energy planning, particularly given the region’s position between competing powers.
The Vulnerability of Small States: Both Cuba and Mexico—in different ways—have demonstrated the challenges small and medium-sized nations face in maintaining independent policies when caught between great powers. For Singapore and ASEAN, this underscores the importance of multilateralism, international law, and regional solidarity as buffers against coercion.
Trump’s Energy Doctrine and Asia
President Trump’s aggressive approach to using energy as a geopolitical weapon in Latin America suggests a broader strategic doctrine that could eventually extend to Asia. His administration has already demonstrated willingness to use tariffs, sanctions, and other forms of economic pressure to achieve foreign policy goals.
If the U.S. were to apply similar tactics to pressure allies or neutral nations regarding their energy trade with China, North Korea, or other countries Washington deems adversarial, Singapore could face difficult choices. While Singapore’s deep economic integration with both the United States and China has historically been manageable, an era of binary choices could prove far more challenging.
Economic Opportunities Amid Uncertainty
Despite the concerning geopolitical implications, the Cuba energy crisis may create specific opportunities for Singapore’s energy sector:
Trading Opportunities: Market volatility creates opportunities for sophisticated traders. Singapore’s commodity trading houses, with their global networks and risk management capabilities, may benefit from pricing dislocations created by supply disruptions.
Refining Demand Shifts: As traditional supply chains are disrupted, demand for refined products may shift to more politically neutral suppliers. Singapore’s refineries could potentially capture market share from Venezuelan or other politically constrained sources.
Technology and Solutions: Singapore’s growing cleantech sector, including solar, energy storage, and grid management solutions, could find new markets in countries seeking to reduce vulnerability to external energy suppliers. Cuba’s crisis is an extreme example of energy insecurity that many nations wish to avoid.
Singapore’s Policy Response
While Singapore has not issued an official statement on the Mexico-Cuba oil situation, the government’s likely approach can be inferred from its historical positions:
Reaffirm Multilateralism: Singapore will likely continue emphasizing the importance of international law, open trade, and respect for sovereignty in all forums. The Mexico-Cuba situation provides a clear example of why these principles matter.
Strengthen Regional Energy Cooperation: ASEAN’s push for regional grid integration, LNG cooperation, and renewable energy development becomes even more important in a world where energy can be weaponized. Singapore will likely accelerate these initiatives.
Maintain Strategic Balancing: Singapore will continue its delicate balance between its security partnership with the United States and its economic ties with China, avoiding taking sides in disputes that don’t directly affect its interests while quietly preparing for a more polarized world.
Enhance Energy Resilience: The government may accelerate plans for strategic reserves, renewable energy deployment, and regional energy interconnections to ensure Singapore’s energy security doesn’t depend on any single supplier or route.
Looking Ahead
The Cuba energy crisis represents a microcosm of broader trends reshaping the global order: the weaponization of economic interdependence, the erosion of non-aligned space for small nations, and the increasing willingness of great powers to use coercive tools to achieve political goals.
For Singapore, the situation serves as both a warning and a call to action. The warning is clear: in an age of intensifying geopolitical competition, even well-established economic relationships can be disrupted by political pressure. The call to action is equally clear: Singapore must continue strengthening its resilience, deepening regional cooperation, and championing the rules-based international order that has enabled its prosperity.
As Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and his government navigate these turbulent waters, the principles that have guided Singapore since independence—pragmatism, diversification, and principled multilateralism—remain more relevant than ever. The Cuba crisis may be unfolding thousands of miles away, but its lessons hit close to home for every small nation that depends on open seas, free trade, and respect for sovereignty to survive and thrive.