The Expiration of the New START Treaty: Implications for a New Nuclear Age
Abstract
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States, is set to expire, marking a significant shift in the global nuclear landscape. This paper examines the implications of the treaty’s expiration, including the potential for a new arms race and the role of China in the emerging nuclear order. We analyze the historical context of arms control agreements, the provisions of the New START treaty, and the consequences of its expiration. We also discuss the potential constraints on a new arms race, including economic costs and the risks of nuclear proliferation.
Introduction
The world is on the cusp of a new nuclear age, as the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States, the New START treaty, is set to expire. The treaty, signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems that each country could possess. The expiration of the treaty marks a significant shift in the global nuclear landscape, raising concerns about the potential for a new arms race and the role of China in the emerging nuclear order.
Historical Context
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, considered the closest the world ever came to intentional nuclear war, marked a turning point in the development of nuclear arms control agreements. The crisis led to a series of negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union, resulting in the signing of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) treaty in 1972. The SALT treaty was followed by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 1987 and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in 1991. These agreements aimed to reduce the risk of nuclear war by limiting the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
The New START Treaty
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, built on the foundations of the previous START treaty. The treaty limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads that each country could possess to 1,550, and the number of delivery systems to 800. The treaty also established a verification regime, which included on-site inspections and data exchanges, to ensure compliance with the treaty’s provisions.
Expiration of the New START Treaty
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant shift in the global nuclear landscape. Unless Washington and Moscow reach a last-minute understanding, the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will be left without any limits on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. This raises concerns about the potential for a new arms race, as each side will be free to upload hundreds of additional warheads onto their deployed missiles and heavy bombers.
Constraints on a New Arms Race
While the expiration of the New START treaty removes the formal constraints on the size of the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, there are other factors that may constrain a new arms race. Economic costs are a significant consideration, as the development and deployment of new nuclear systems are expensive. Additionally, the risks of nuclear proliferation, including the potential for nuclear materials to fall into the hands of non-state actors, may also serve as a constraint on the development of new nuclear systems.
The Role of China
China is emerging as a key player in the global nuclear landscape. China’s nuclear arsenal is smaller than those of the United States and Russia, but it is rapidly modernizing its nuclear capabilities. China’s participation in future nuclear arms control agreements will be crucial, as it is likely to play a significant role in shaping the emerging nuclear order.
Conclusion
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant shift in the global nuclear landscape, raising concerns about the potential for a new arms race and the role of China in the emerging nuclear order. While economic costs and the risks of nuclear proliferation may serve as constraints on the development of new nuclear systems, the absence of formal constraints on the size of the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals is a cause for concern. It is essential that Washington and Moscow engage in negotiations to establish a new framework for nuclear arms control, one that includes China and addresses the emerging challenges of the 21st century.
Recommendations
Renewal of the New START Treaty: The United States and Russia should renew the New START treaty, or negotiate a new agreement that builds on its provisions.
Inclusion of China: China should be included in future nuclear arms control agreements, to ensure that its rapidly modernizing nuclear capabilities are subject to international scrutiny and constraint.
Verification and Transparency: Any new nuclear arms control agreement should include robust verification and transparency measures, to ensure compliance with the treaty’s provisions.
Addressing Emerging Challenges: The new nuclear arms control agreement should address the emerging challenges of the 21st century, including the risks of nuclear proliferation and the potential for non-state actors to acquire nuclear materials.