Market Activity Analysis: February 13, 2026
Executive Summary
On February 13, 2026, Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 4,941 points, declining 1.51% from the previous session despite broader positive momentum earlier in the week. This case study examines the market dynamics, economic outlook, strategic implications, and policy responses shaping Singapore’s equity markets during a period of significant macroeconomic transition.
I. Market Overview and Performance
A. Index Performance
The STI demonstrated resilience despite the February 13 decline, maintaining strong year-to-date performance:
STI closed at 4,941 points on February 13, down 1.51% from previous session
Year-to-date performance: +6.8% through mid-February
Twelve-month performance: +27.43%, indicating sustained upward momentum
Monthly performance: +2.67% over previous month
B. Trading Activity
Market liquidity showed robust growth, with Singapore Exchange (SGX) reporting substantial increases in trading activity:
January 2026 turnover: SGD 34.6 billion, up 66% year-over-year
Securities daily average volume: SGD 1.65 billion, up 58% year-over-year
February 11 session: Approximately USD 2.4 billion turnover across 1.5 billion securities traded
C. Sectoral Performance Drivers
Key sectoral movements reflected both domestic strength and global positioning:
Financial Services Leaders:
Singapore Exchange (SGX): +5% to SGD 19.07, driven by record trading volumes
United Overseas Bank (UOB): +3.6%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC): +2.6%
Real Estate and Conglomerates:
Keppel Ltd: +6.5%, with net profit rising 27.2% to SGD 645.4 million in H2 2025
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT): Strong DPU growth of 9.4% to 5.96 cents
Hongkong Land Holdings: +1.2%
Technology and AI Infrastructure:
AsiaPhos: Surged 13% on strategic partnership with China Mobile International for data center and AI computing
Singtel: Major transaction announced – SGD 6.6 billion acquisition of ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (with KKR)
II. Economic Context and Macroeconomic Drivers
A. GDP Performance and Outlook
Singapore’s economic resilience manifested in exceptional Q4 2025 performance:
Metric Performance Significance
Q4 2025 GDP Growth (YoY) 6.9% Fastest since 2021
Full Year 2025 GDP Growth 4.8% Up from 4.4% in 2024
2026 GDP Forecast (MTI) 2.0% – 4.0% Upgraded from 1.0-3.0%
Unemployment Rate (Q4) 2.0% Unchanged, near full employment
B. Trade Performance
Non-oil domestic exports exceeded expectations:
2025 NODX growth: 4.8%, significantly exceeding official forecast of 2.5%
2026 NODX forecast upgraded to 2.0-4.0% range from previous 0-2.0%
Key drivers: AI-related semiconductor demand, elevated gold prices, regional trade flows
C. Monetary Policy Stance
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained a steady policy position:
Policy rate: Held steady at current levels
Core inflation forecast: 1-2% for 2026
Headline inflation forecast: 1-2% for 2026
Policy stance: Balancing growth resilience with price stability
III. Challenges and Market Headwinds
A. Global Trade Tensions
Singapore’s highly trade-dependent economy (trade-to-GDP ratio exceeding 320%) faces significant external pressures:
US reciprocal tariffs: Despite FTA, Singapore faces 10% baseline tariff
Impact on key trading partners: China, Eurozone economies facing headwinds
Southeast Asian slowdown expected as regional export demand moderates
Potential for renewed escalation creating further uncertainty
B. Sectoral Vulnerabilities
Manufacturing sector: Electronics cluster benefits from AI demand, but precision engineering faces near-term challenges due to semiconductor tariff uncertainty
Consumer spending: Tariff pass-through to consumer prices may dampen consumption growth
Investment timing: Semiconductor firms may delay capacity investments pending tariff clarity
C. Market Volatility Spillovers
Regional equity market interconnections create transmission channels for volatility:
Research indicates 1% move in Nikkei-225 yields 0.45% response in STI over two days
US tech sector volatility (“SaaSpocalypse” concerns) transmitted to Asian markets
Global AI investment cycle uncertainty creates potential downside risks
IV. Strategic Solutions and Policy Responses
A. Structural Economic Reforms
Value unlocking in large-cap companies: Initiatives such as Boustead Singapore’s REIT spin-off creating shareholder value
Market structure enhancements: SGX implementing reforms to boost liquidity and trading volumes
Corporate governance improvements: Keppel’s appointment of former DBS CEO Piyush Gupta as chairman-designate signals professional management focus
B. AI and Technology Infrastructure Investment
Singapore positioning as regional AI and data center hub:
Singtel-KKR acquisition of ST Telemedia Global Data Centres for SGD 6.6 billion
AsiaPhos strategic partnership with China Mobile International for AI computing infrastructure
Expected productivity gains and margin improvements from AI adoption across sectors
Semiconductor and electronics cluster benefiting from AI-related server and chip demand
C. Sectoral Diversification Strategy
Aerospace MRO: Multi-year maintenance, repair, and overhaul upcycle in aerospace sector
Marine & offshore engineering: Strong order books supporting transport engineering growth
Hospitality recovery: Expected to meet 2026 visitor targets with firmer hotel performance
REITs sector: Testing resistance at 633 on FTSE REIT Index with potential breakout momentum
D. Monetary and Fiscal Buffers
Policy flexibility: MAS maintains scope to adjust monetary stance if external conditions deteriorate
Fiscal reserves: Strong sovereign balance sheet provides counter-cyclical capacity
Interest rate environment: Low rates supporting shift of liquidity from fixed income to equities
V. Market Outlook and Projections
A. Analyst Consensus
Leading research houses project continued STI strength:
Maybank Research: STI target of 5,600 (approximately 13% upside from February 13 levels)
DBS: 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.8%, close to potential growth
OCBC: GDP growth projection around 2%, with manufacturing growth of 2.2% YoY
Moody’s Analytics: Supports FOMC easing cycle remaining on hold, favorable for Asian equities
B. Key Investment Themes
Quality defensives: REITs offering 5%+ dividend yields with stable cash flows
Financial sector exposure: Banks and SGX benefiting from higher volumes and attractive valuations
AI infrastructure plays: Data center operators and technology enablers
Value unlocking opportunities: Large-cap restructuring and SMID-cap reforms
Regional champions: Companies with ASEAN exposure benefiting from supply chain diversification
C. Risk Scenarios
Upside scenario: Stronger-than-projected AI investment cycle drives electronics demand beyond current forecasts; equity market gains create positive wealth effects supporting consumption.
Base case: GDP growth of 2-4% with STI reaching 5,400-5,600 range; AI infrastructure build-out continues supporting technology sector; manufacturing moderates but remains positive.
Downside scenario: Renewed tariff escalation or geopolitical tensions trigger risk-off sentiment; AI investment correction dampens semiconductor demand; Chinese growth slowdown more severe than anticipated.
VI. Impact Analysis
A. Impact on Market Participants
Institutional Investors:
Increased allocation to Singapore equities as safe-haven play within Asia
Rotation from growth to value and defensive sectors
Enhanced focus on dividend yield amid uncertain capital appreciation environment
Retail Investors:
Growing participation evidenced by 58% increase in daily average volumes
Access to passive income through high-yielding REITs
Exposure to regional growth through Singapore-listed multinationals
Corporate Issuers:
Favorable equity raising environment with strong market valuations
Enhanced strategic flexibility for M&A and capital allocation
Pressure to demonstrate AI strategy and digital transformation progress
B. Broader Economic Impact
Wealth effect: 27%+ annual STI gains support consumer confidence and spending
Capital formation: Strong equity markets facilitate infrastructure and technology investment
Regional positioning: Singapore reinforces status as Southeast Asian financial hub
Foreign direct investment: Equity market strength attracts multinational corporate headquarters and regional treasury centers
C. Policy Implications
Macroprudential oversight: MAS monitoring equity market stability as systemic risk indicator
Market development: Continued reforms to deepen capital markets and enhance price discovery
Trade diplomacy: Renewed focus on FTA network and tariff mitigation strategies
Industrial policy: Strategic investments in AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing
VII. Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations
Key Findings
The February 13, 2026 Singapore market session encapsulates the dynamic interplay between domestic resilience and external uncertainties. Despite a 1.51% decline on the day, the STI’s strong year-to-date and twelve-month performance reflect robust macroeconomic fundamentals:
Singapore’s economy demonstrated exceptional momentum with 6.9% Q4 2025 GDP growth
MTI upgraded 2026 GDP forecast to 2.0-4.0% range, citing strengthened global conditions
AI infrastructure investments position Singapore as regional technology hub
Trade vulnerabilities persist due to US tariffs and slowing major trading partner growth
Structural reforms and corporate governance improvements unlocking shareholder value
Strategic Recommendations
For Policymakers:
Maintain monetary policy flexibility to respond to external shocks
Accelerate trade diversification through expanded FTA network
Continue capital market reforms to enhance liquidity and attract listings
Invest strategically in AI infrastructure and semiconductor ecosystem
For Investors:
Emphasize quality defensives with strong balance sheets and dividend yields
Gain exposure to AI infrastructure through data center operators and technology enablers
Monitor regional spill-over effects from US tech volatility
Consider value unlocking opportunities in restructuring large-caps
For Corporate Leaders:
Articulate clear AI adoption strategies to capture productivity gains
Pursue operational efficiency to maintain margins amid potential tariff costs
Leverage strong equity valuations for strategic M&A and capital deployment
Enhance corporate governance to unlock shareholder value
Final Assessment
Singapore’s equity market enters the latter half of February 2026 from a position of relative strength. The combination of resilient domestic fundamentals, strategic positioning in high-growth sectors (AI, data centers, semiconductors), and solid macroeconomic buffers provides a foundation for continued outperformance. However, the external environment remains challenging, with trade tensions and global growth uncertainties requiring vigilant monitoring.
The STI’s 27%+ annual gain reflects not merely cyclical momentum but structural improvements: market reforms, corporate governance enhancements, and Singapore’s evolution as a regional AI and technology hub. While near-term volatility is inevitable, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, supported by analyst price targets implying double-digit upside potential.
Success will depend on Singapore’s ability to navigate protectionist headwinds while capitalizing on structural growth opportunities in technology infrastructure, maintaining its reputation for policy credibility, and continuing to attract international capital through market development initiatives.
Appendix: Data Sources and Methodology
Primary Data Sources:
Singapore Exchange (SGX) trading data
Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) official statistics and forecasts
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) policy statements
Singapore Department of Statistics GDP data
Bloomberg Terminal market data
Research reports: Maybank, DBS, OCBC, CGS International, Lim & Tan Securities
Analysis Period: January 1, 2026 – February 13, 2026
Geographic Scope: Singapore equity markets with consideration of regional and global context
Report Date: February 14, 2026
Disclaimer: This case study is prepared for educational and analytical purposes. It does not constitute investment advice. Market data and forecasts are subject to change. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.