Executive Summary
The February 2026 earnings season — headlined by Nvidia, Berkshire Hathaway, Home Depot, Salesforce, and a cohort of Canadian banks — arrives at a pivotal macroeconomic juncture. Simultaneously, the U.S. Supreme Court’s partial invalidation of President Trump’s tariff regime and a State of the Union address threaten to reshape global trade architecture. For Singapore, a small, hyper-open economy deeply embedded in global semiconductor supply chains, trade finance, and wealth management, these events carry outsized consequence.
This case study examines the Singapore-specific context of these global developments, outlines the macro and sectoral outlook, and proposes strategic solutions for policymakers, corporates, and investors navigating this complex landscape.
- Context: Singapore’s Structural Exposure
1.1 The AI and Semiconductor Nexus
Nvidia’s earnings report — the first in 2026 — is arguably the most consequential single corporate disclosure for Singapore’s economy. As the world’s dominant supplier of AI-specialized graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia sits at the apex of a supply chain in which Singapore plays a critical intermediate role.
Dimension Singapore’s Role Exposure Level
Semiconductor Packaging Advanced Integrated Circuit Packaging (A*STAR, ASE, Amkor facilities in Tampines & Woodlands) Very High
Wafer Fabrication GlobalFoundries, Micron, STMicroelectronics plants High
Equipment MRO & Distribution Regional hub for ASML, Applied Materials, KLA servicing High
Data Centre Infrastructure Google, Microsoft, AWS, ByteDance regional AI campuses Very High
Trade Financing SGX-listed firms financing chip component trade flows Medium
Nvidia’s commentary on China market access is particularly salient. Singapore-based trading entities and logistics firms have historically served as re-export intermediaries in the East Asian semiconductor trade. Any tightening of U.S. export controls — or relaxation thereof — directly affects throughput at Jurong Port and Changi Airfreight Centre.
1.2 Berkshire Hathaway and the Wealth Management Dimension
Singapore is Asia’s premier wealth management hub, managing approximately SGD 5.4 trillion in assets under management as of 2025. Berkshire Hathaway’s first earnings report under Greg Abel is not merely a U.S. corporate event — it is a signal event for global capital allocation. High-net-worth individuals and family offices domiciled in Singapore hold significant allocations to U.S. equities, including Berkshire.
Moreover, Berkshire’s portfolio rebalancing under Abel could signal a shift away from large-cap tech — consistent with its recent reported exits from major technology positions — potentially redirecting capital toward industrials, financials, or international equities. Singapore-based private banks and family offices will be closely parsing the 13-F disclosures.
1.3 Trade Policy Uncertainty: The Tariff Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling striking down key provisions of the Trump tariff regime introduces structural uncertainty into global trade flows. Singapore, as a trans-shipment hub handling over 37 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) annually, is acutely sensitive to shifts in trade route economics.
Key Risk Indicator
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) have historically correlated with U.S.-China trade volumes. A protracted tariff dispute — even one partially invalidated by courts — creates a fog of uncertainty that depresses trade finance volumes and port utilisation rates at PSA International.
1.4 Housing Market and Wealth Transmission
Reports from Home Depot and Lowe’s, set against a backdrop of U.S. housing market weakness, carry indirect relevance to Singapore. The U.S. housing correction has dampened wealth effects for American households, reducing discretionary spending — a dynamic that feeds through to Singapore’s tourism and retail sectors which depend partly on high-spending American visitors. More structurally, U.S. housing market conditions influence U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions, which in turn drive Singapore’s interbank offered rates (SIBOR/SORA), directly affecting mortgage and corporate borrowing costs domestically.
- Macroeconomic Outlook for Singapore
2.1 Growth Trajectory
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry projected GDP growth of 1.0–3.0% for 2026, with the midpoint scenario contingent on stable global electronics demand. The earnings season introduces significant scenario divergence:
Scenario Trigger Singapore GDP Impact SGD/USD
Bull Case Nvidia beats on revenue, raises guidance; AI capex cycle accelerates +0.4 to +0.6 ppt to baseline Appreciation pressure (risk-on)
Base Case Nvidia meets estimates; Fed signals gradual easing; tariff uncertainty persists Baseline maintained Range-bound 1.32–1.35
Bear Case Nvidia misses on China revenue; AI capex pullback; tariff re-escalation -0.5 to -0.8 ppt Depreciation pressure (risk-off)
2.2 Monetary Policy: MAS and the Fed Feedback Loop
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages monetary policy through the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band, rather than interest rates. However, Federal Reserve decisions — signalled this week by multiple Fed speakers including Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman — directly transmit to Singapore through capital flows and SORA benchmarks.
Should Nvidia’s earnings reinforce the narrative that AI-driven capex remains robust, equity risk appetite would likely support a mild USD weakening — giving MAS policy space to maintain its current slightly-appreciating stance without undue currency drag on exports. Conversely, a significant AI demand disappointment could trigger a flight-to-safety USD rally, compressing Singapore’s import costs but pressuring NODX competitiveness.
2.3 Labour Market and Structural Employment
The AI-driven structural shift in employment, highlighted by the Investopedia article’s reference to regional AI job displacement risk, resonates strongly in Singapore. The government’s SkillsFuture programme and recent Budget commitments to AI upskilling represent pre-emptive policy responses. The outcomes of this earnings season will inform private sector hiring intentions — particularly among the multinational technology firms operating regional headquarters in Singapore’s one-north and Jurong Innovation District clusters.
- Sectoral Impact Analysis
3.1 Semiconductors and Electronics Manufacturing
Demand Signal: Nvidia earnings and guidance will set the demand signal for Singapore’s wafer fabrication and advanced packaging ecosystem for H1 2026.
GlobalFoundries: GlobalFoundries’ Singapore fab, producing mature-node chips for automotive and IoT applications, is indirectly supported by sustained AI infrastructure investment that funds broader semiconductor ecosystem growth.
SGX-Listed Suppliers: Singapore-based chip component distributors (e.g., Venture Corporation, UMS Holdings, AEM Holdings) are likely to see order book revisions in line with Nvidia’s commentary on inventory cycles.
3.2 Financial Services and Capital Markets
Local Banks: DBS, OCBC, and UOB — Singapore’s three major banks — have significant exposure to the regional technology sector through corporate lending and trade finance. A positive Nvidia result supports credit quality in the tech portfolio.
Data Centre REITs: SGX-listed REITs with data centre assets (e.g., Keppel DC REIT, Digital Core REIT) trade as proxies for AI infrastructure demand. Nvidia’s forward guidance on GPU shipments will directly affect their leasing pipeline and valuation multiples.
Wealth Management: Singapore’s private banks (Citi Private Bank, UBS, Julius Baer) managing U.S. equity portfolios for Asian HNWIs will face immediate rebalancing decisions post-Nvidia and post-Berkshire disclosures.
3.3 Trade, Logistics, and Port Operations
PSA International: The tariff ruling’s impact on U.S.-China trade flows will affect container throughput at PSA International. A court-imposed constraint on blanket tariffs could modestly revive trans-Pacific volumes.
Singapore Airlines Cargo: Singapore Airlines’ cargo division, which handles significant volumes of high-value electronics between Asia and North America, is a direct beneficiary of sustained semiconductor trade flows.
3.4 Real Estate and Construction
The U.S. housing market data, alongside Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings, signals the state of American consumer balance sheets. For Singapore, this matters through two channels: (1) the wealth effect on American tourists and property investors who participate in Singapore’s luxury residential market, and (2) the signal it sends about the trajectory of U.S. rates, which flows into Singapore’s SORA and affects HDB and private property affordability.
- Strategic Solutions and Policy Recommendations
4.1 For the Singapore Government and MAS
Maintain Exchange Rate Flexibility
MAS should retain the current modest appreciating bias in the S$NEER, which provides a natural hedge against imported inflation even as growth risks from external demand uncertainty persist. A mid-cycle policy review may be warranted if Nvidia’s earnings materially reset global AI capex expectations.
Accelerate Strategic Semiconductor Stockpiling
Inspired by Taiwan’s and Japan’s approaches, Singapore should explore a national strategic reserve of advanced semiconductors for critical government and infrastructure systems, reducing vulnerability to supply chain disruptions arising from geopolitical flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait.
Deepen Trade Resilience via Free Trade Agreement Activation
The tariff ruling creates a strategic opening. Singapore should accelerate dialogue within ASEAN, and through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), to position itself as a rules-based trade hub and re-routing node if U.S.-China bilateral trade continues to fragment.
4.2 For Singapore-Listed Corporates
Technology Sector: Diversify Customer Concentration
Singapore-based semiconductor suppliers overly concentrated in the Nvidia supply chain should use 2026 to diversify into AMD, Intel Foundry Services, and custom ASIC customers. The earnings season may reveal concentration risks that boards should proactively address.
Financial Sector: Upgrade AI-Related Risk Frameworks
Singapore banks should enhance their credit risk models to assess AI capex cycle exposure within their technology loan books. The volatility following major AI earnings events suggests cyclical concentration risk that requires bespoke stress testing.
4.3 For Institutional and Private Investors in Singapore
Tactical Asset Allocation
Singapore-based family offices and institutional investors should consider the following positioning framework in the context of this earnings cycle:
Asset Class Rationale Recommended Action
SGX Data Centre REITs Direct AI infrastructure proxy; Nvidia guidance is key catalyst Overweight if Nvidia guidance positive
SGX Semiconductor Suppliers Leverage to AI capex cycle via supply chain Selective overweight (AEM, Venture)
Singapore Government Securities Safe haven amid tariff uncertainty Maintain core allocation
USD/SGD Currency Fed speakers this week may signal rate path Monitor; hedge USD exposure if risk-off
U.S. Equities (via Singapore platforms) Berkshire signal on large-cap value vs. tech Watch Abel’s first capital allocation decisions
4.4 For Workforce and Education Policy
The AI displacement risk highlighted in the Investopedia piece directly informs Singapore’s human capital strategy. Three interventions merit prioritisation:
SkillsFuture Enhancement: Extend SkillsFuture credits specifically for AI literacy and prompt engineering certifications, targeting PMETs in sectors most exposed to automation: accounting, paralegal work, and mid-level financial analysis.
New Collar Trades: Leverage Singapore’s Institutes of Technical Education (ITE) and polytechnics to create AI-adjacent trades — robotic maintenance, data centre operations, AI model auditing — that are less susceptible to full automation.
MNC Partnership Commitments: Engage MNCs reporting this week (Salesforce, Workday) to commit to Singapore-specific retraining pledges as part of their Economic Development Board (EDB) partnership agreements.
- Risk Matrix
Risk Probability Impact on Singapore Mitigation
Nvidia misses and cuts AI capex guidance Medium High — semiconductor sector, data centre REITs, STI decline Diversify supply chain relationships; MAS monitor S$NEER
Trump re-escalates tariffs post-SOTU despite court ruling Medium-High High — PSA throughput, trade finance volumes CPTPP activation; ASEAN coordination
Fed signals prolonged rate hold Medium Medium — SORA elevated, mortgage stress, property cooling MAS consider targeted mortgage relief measures
Berkshire signals large-scale U.S. equity rotation Low-Medium Medium — wealth effect on Singapore-based U.S. equity holders Advise clients on portfolio rebalancing
Warner Bros/Paramount M&A disrupts streaming market Low Low-Medium — StarHub, Singtel content licensing costs Monitor OTT content pricing trends
- Conclusion
The February 2026 global earnings cycle is not a remote American corporate event for Singapore. It is a stress test of the city-state’s position at the intersection of AI-driven technology demand, global trade architecture, and international capital markets. Singapore’s structural strengths — the rule of law, a credible MAS, world-class logistics infrastructure, and a globally educated workforce — provide resilience. But the pace and scale of the AI transformation, combined with the renewed unpredictability of U.S. trade policy, demands proactive and adaptive responses from government, corporations, and investors alike.
Nvidia’s earnings will tell us whether the AI capex supercycle is deepening or decelerating. Berkshire’s report will tell us whether the most storied value investor in history, now in its post-Buffett era, remains committed to American equities. The Fed speakers will tell us how much longer monetary tightening lingers. For Singapore, all three answers matter — and the strategic responses must be ready before the week is out.
Singapore Strategic Watchlist for the Week of Feb 23, 2026
Wednesday (Nvidia, post-market): Monitor SGX after-hours; AEM Holdings, Keppel DC REIT, Digital Core REIT as proxies. | Tuesday (Trump SOTU): Watch for tariff rhetoric; PSA International and SIA cargo stocks most exposed. | Thursday (Berkshire, Canadian Banks): DBS, OCBC, UOB exposure to Canadian bank correspondent relationships and cross-border private banking. | Friday (U.S. PPI): SORA trajectory; Singapore property market and REITs.