CASE STUDY
Global Gallery Strategies, Emerging Market Formation, and the Repositioning of Asian Art Hubs Amid a Sustained Downturn (2023–2026)
US$57.5B
Global Art Sales (2024)
12% year-on-year decline US$21.6B+
Gulf Cultural Investment
Saudi Arabia alone since 2016 42%
Singapore New Collectors
Highest proportion globally (2024)
Executive Summary
This case study examines the structural reorientation of the global art market toward Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in response to a sustained two-year decline in Western art sales, and analyses the consequent implications for Singapore as Asia’s primary art market hub. Drawing on the inaugural Art Basel Qatar (February 2026), Art Basel and UBS market data, and broader evidence of Gulf cultural investment, the case traces a pattern of strategic geographic diversification by major galleries and art fair operators. It evaluates whether Singapore’s positioning as a neutral, infrastructure-rich regional hub is complementary or competitive with Gulf ambitions, and identifies the structural opportunities and risks for Singapore-based stakeholders.
- Background: A Market Under Stress
1.1 The Global Slump
The global art market entered a period of pronounced contraction beginning in 2023 and deepening through 2024. According to the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report, total sales reached an estimated US$57.5 billion in 2024 — a 12 per cent year-on-year decline from the 2023 figure of approximately US$65 billion. The contraction was broadly distributed across traditional market centres, with particular severity in Europe and North America, while China and Hong Kong auction values fell by approximately 38 per cent from their 2021 peaks.
The downturn reflects a confluence of macroeconomic pressures: elevated interest rates reducing liquidity among high-net-worth investors, geopolitical instability disrupting cross-border collector activity, and the exhaustion of demand at the ultra-high-value segment — a segment that had driven disproportionate market value during the post-pandemic boom of 2020–2022. Notably, transaction volume actually increased by approximately four per cent in 2024, signalling that the mid-market (works priced between US$50,000 and US$1 million) remained comparatively resilient, even as headline value figures declined.
Key Finding
The bifurcation between transaction volume and total value is analytically significant. It indicates a structural redistribution of activity toward the mid-market and away from trophy-asset speculation — a pattern with direct implications for which geographic markets are best positioned to capture emerging demand.
1.2 Institutional Responses
Major auction houses and art fair operators responded to market stress through a combination of consolidation, selective expansion, and geographic diversification. Christie’s and Sotheby’s reported that second-half 2025 auction sales were up 26 per cent on the comparable prior-year period, suggesting a modest recovery led by blue-chip secondary market transactions. However, this recovery was uneven: the closures of mid-market gallery groups including Blum, Clearing, Sperone Westwater, and — in Hong Kong — Pace’s local space, underscored persistent structural pressure on the mid-tier commercial gallery model.
Art Basel’s response was emblematic of the sector’s broader strategic logic: expand the addressable collector base by entering under-served geographic markets with demonstrable wealth concentrations and growing cultural infrastructure. The inauguration of Art Basel Qatar in February 2026 — joining the operator’s existing fairs in Miami Beach, Hong Kong, Basel, and Paris — represented the most significant institutional signal of the Gulf’s emergence as a primary art market destination.
- The Gulf Pivot: Strategy and Scale
2.1 The Investment Context
The Gulf states’ appeal as an art market destination is anchored in a decade of state-directed cultural investment aimed at economic diversification and tourism development. The scale of this investment is substantial and accelerating. Abu Dhabi committed US$6 billion to culture and creative industries through a five-year plan announced in 2021, underpinned by the operational presence of Louvre Abu Dhabi — the only licensed foreign branch of the Louvre — and the forthcoming Guggenheim Abu Dhabi. Qatar’s museums authority has maintained an annual acquisition and programming budget of approximately US$1 billion. Saudi Arabia has exceeded US$21.6 billion in total cultural investment since 2016, with Art Basel and Sotheby’s chief executives attending an October 2025 investment conference in Jeddah at which major art sector commitments were announced.
State Key Cultural Investment Flagship Institution(s) Notable Market Action
Qatar ~US$1B annual art budget Museum of Islamic Art; National Museum of Qatar Host of Art Basel Qatar (2026)
UAE (Abu Dhabi) US$6B (2021–2026 plan) Louvre Abu Dhabi; Guggenheim Abu Dhabi (forthcoming) ADQ US$1B stake in Sotheby’s (2024)
Saudi Arabia US$21.6B since 2016 New national museums; Diriyah cultural district First international auction in Diriyah; Colnaghi Riyadh (2026)
UAE (Dubai) Ongoing expansion Multiple private and fair infrastructure Art Dubai: 120 galleries from 60+ cities (2025)
2.2 The Gallery Calculus
For commercial galleries, the logic of Gulf expansion is one of necessary diversification. Gagosian Gallery’s senior director Andisheh Avini, speaking at Art Basel Qatar, articulated this explicitly: the imperative is to identify new collector bases as Western demand contracts. The Gulf offers several structural advantages. Private wealth is concentrated — Saudi Arabia alone is home to 351,855 millionaires — and is increasingly oriented toward art as both a status commodity and an alternative asset class. Institutional purchasing is state-backed and thus less cyclically sensitive than private collector demand in Western markets. Tax environments are favourable, with zero personal income or capital gains tax in both the UAE and Qatar.
The sovereign wealth angle is particularly important. Abu Dhabi’s ADQ fund made a US$1 billion minority investment in Sotheby’s in 2024, signalling that Gulf states are not merely passive buyers but active participants in shaping the market’s institutional architecture. This investment aligns with a broader pattern of Gulf sovereign wealth funds acquiring stakes in cultural and luxury sectors as part of portfolio diversification strategies.
Strategic Insight: Sovereign Acquisition as Market Signal
ADQ’s investment in Sotheby’s is not simply a financial transaction — it represents a form of institutional anchoring. By embedding Gulf sovereign capital at the governance level of a major auction house, Abu Dhabi secures preferential access to sale consignments, advisory relationships, and market intelligence. For galleries, this signals that the Gulf’s commitment to the art market transcends any single fair cycle.
2.3 Art Basel Qatar: A Case Within the Case
The inaugural Art Basel Qatar (February 2026) is analytically useful as a concrete institutional test of Gulf market depth. The fair featured 87 galleries and was positioned within a Doha art ecosystem that includes the Museum of Islamic Art and the National Museum of Qatar. The curatorial programming — including Gagosian’s presentation of Christo’s early wrapped sculptures — reflected a deliberate strategy of introducing internationally recognised artistic narratives to Gulf audiences while remaining sensitive to local cultural registers.
Art Basel CEO Noah Horowitz acknowledged the dual motivation behind the launch: the organisation’s awareness that ‘the value of sales has ratcheted down for the past two years’ and the strategic assessment that ‘the time was right to enter the MENASA region.’ That Art Dubai simultaneously expanded — adding two new director roles and featuring 120 galleries from over 60 cities in its 2025 edition — suggests that the Gulf fair market is entering a competitive phase of its own, with potential consequences for programming differentiation and gallery allocation decisions.
- Singapore: Structural Position and the Gulf Pivot
3.1 Singapore’s Art Market Credentials
Singapore’s emergence as Asia’s pre-eminent art market hub is well-documented and rests on a set of structural advantages that are largely independent of the Gulf pivot. The city-state benefits from political neutrality, an English-language operating environment, zero capital gains tax, Freeport bonded storage infrastructure (allowing tax-deferred holding of art assets), and a regulatory environment that is consistently rated among the world’s most business-friendly. These characteristics have made Singapore an increasingly preferred alternative to Hong Kong as geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the implementation of national security legislation have complicated Hong Kong’s status as a neutral trade intermediary.
Quantitatively, Singapore’s share of global art exports grew from 1 per cent in 2019 to 5 per cent in 2023 — a fourfold increase within four years. Import values rose 74 per cent in the same period. National Gallery Singapore attracted over 2 million visitors in 2024. Art SG 2025, the city’s primary international fair (now in its third edition), hosted 105 galleries from 30 countries and attracted over 41,000 visitors despite a reduced exhibitor count — a reduction which fair co-founder Magnus Renfrew characterised as a deliberate right-sizing rather than a retreat.
1% → 5%
Art Export Share
2019 to 2023 (fourfold increase) +74%
Import Value Growth
2019–2023 41,000+
Art SG Visitors (2025)
105 galleries from 30 countries
3.2 The Collector Base
Critically, the Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting (2024) identified Singapore as having the highest proportion of new collectors among high-net-worth individuals globally — 42 per cent of survey respondents had been collecting for fewer than six years. This is a structurally important finding. A young collector base represents not merely current demand but the foundation of a durable, deepening market. Ninety-seven per cent of Singapore-based respondents expressed optimism about global market conditions, and 52 per cent planned to increase their art purchases.
This collector dynamism is supported by rapid private wealth formation. The number of family offices registered in Singapore surpassed 2,000 in 2024, compared to just 400 in 2020 — a fivefold increase in four years, fuelled partly by wealth migration from mainland China during and after the pandemic, and partly by Singapore’s aggressive use of variable capital company structures to attract fund managers. The Art Basel collector data consistently shows Singapore drawing buyers not only from the domestic market but from across Southeast Asia (particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and from the broader Indo-Pacific region.
3.3 Complementarity vs. Competition with the Gulf
The relationship between Singapore’s art market and the Gulf’s emerging ecosystem is best understood as asymmetrically complementary in the near term, with competitive dimensions that will intensify over the medium term. Several structural factors underpin near-term complementarity.
First, the geographic and cultural collector bases are largely non-overlapping. Singapore’s strength lies in Southeast Asian and diaspora Chinese collectors; the Gulf’s base is GCC nationals, South Asian diaspora wealth, and MENASA institutional buyers. Major galleries pursuing global strategies — as Gagosian’s positioning at Art Basel Qatar makes explicit — seek to cultivate both bases simultaneously.
Second, Singapore’s logistical infrastructure plays a distinctive role. As a Freeport hub and transhipment centre, Singapore serves as a storage and transit point for artworks moving between Western primary markets, Asian secondary markets, and — increasingly — Gulf destinations. The city’s free trade zones, its legal system’s treatment of art as a financial asset class, and its geographic position on major shipping lanes create logistics value that is not replicated in Doha or Abu Dhabi. Crown Fine Art’s Singapore director has explicitly noted the importance of the city’s free trade zones and transport links as structural advantages for the wider Asian art trade.
Third, there is growing evidence of cross-regional collector interest. Gulf collector profiles include significant numbers of South Asian diaspora individuals — a demographic with cultural and economic ties to Singapore. As Gulf institutions deepen their programming, Singapore-based collectors and advisors may increasingly serve as intermediaries, curators of taste, and secondary market participants for Gulf-originated artworks.
Medium-Term Competitive Risk
The Gulf states are not merely building audiences — they are building infrastructure. As Louvre Abu Dhabi, the forthcoming Guggenheim Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia’s new national museums reach institutional maturity, they will increasingly compete with Singapore’s National Gallery and Singapore Art Museum for the attention of globally mobile collectors, curators, and artists. The competitive frontier will shift from fair attendance to residency infrastructure, collection depth, and curatorial prestige.
- Key Implications and Strategic Considerations
4.1 For Singapore’s Government and Arts Policy
Singapore’s National Arts Council has moved to increase funding for art market activities, recognising the sector’s contribution to the knowledge economy, tourism, and the city’s brand as a cosmopolitan cultural capital. The Gulf pivot should be interpreted as an accelerant for this policy direction rather than a threat. Singapore occupies a position analogous to Switzerland in the European context: a neutral, financially sophisticated hub whose value is amplified rather than diminished when surrounding markets deepen. However, several policy areas merit attention.
Freeport and logistics positioning: Singapore must actively maintain its advantage in bonded storage and art logistics as competing free zones develop in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. This requires regulatory maintenance and infrastructure investment.
Collector retention and development: The new-collector cohort identified in the 2024 Art Basel data requires sustained institutional cultivation. Programmes that link new collectors to regional institutional programming — including Gulf partnerships — would extend Singapore’s convening role.
Fair differentiation: With Art Basel now operating in both Singapore (via Art SG’s parent company) and the Gulf, there is a risk of content duplication that dilutes the value proposition of each fair. Singapore’s focus on Southeast Asian art and its role as a bridge to Nusantara (Indonesia, Malaysia) provides a defensible point of differentiation.
4.2 For Commercial Galleries
For galleries seeking regional expansion, the strategic picture involves a portfolio logic: the Gulf and Singapore serve different collector profiles and require different curatorial approaches. The Gulf rewards institutional-grade programming with sovereign-wealth-adjacent appeal; Singapore rewards relationship-driven selling to an engaged, cosmopolitan, and increasingly sophisticated new-collector base. Galleries that have established Singapore presences — such as Tang Contemporary Art, which added a permanent Singapore space in July 2024 — are well positioned to use that base as a launching point for Gulf-directed outreach, particularly for works with Asian provenance that may be unfamiliar to Gulf audiences.
4.3 For Collectors and Advisors
Singapore-based collectors are operating in a period of structural advantage. The combination of a rising local institutional profile, favourable tax treatment, proximity to Southeast Asian emerging markets, and growing Gulf demand for Asian art creates multiple arbitrage opportunities. Works by Southeast Asian artists acquired through Singapore’s gallery infrastructure — where pricing remains modest relative to established Western or East Asian markets — may find appreciation as Gulf institutions seek to diversify their collections beyond Islamic art and Western modernism. The role of Singapore-based art advisors as intermediaries in Gulf acquisition strategies is an underexplored but structurally plausible growth area. - Conclusion
The global art market’s pivot toward the Gulf reflects a structural logic of geographic demand diversification that is both rational and historically precedented — mirroring the earlier cultivation of Asian collector bases by Western galleries in the 2000s and 2010s. The Gulf’s combination of sovereign cultural investment, private wealth formation, and institutional ambition positions it as the most significant new market geography of the current decade.
For Singapore, this development is net positive in the near term. The city-state’s logistical, financial, and collector-base advantages are not replicated in Gulf markets, and its role as a regional hub for Southeast Asian art and a neutral intermediary for globally mobile collectors is likely to be reinforced as the overall Asian art economy deepens. The medium-term challenge is to ensure that Singapore’s institutional maturity keeps pace with Gulf infrastructure ambitions, and that its fair and museum ecosystem remains differentiated enough to sustain its convening role as the art market becomes increasingly multipolar.
The fundamental dynamic is one of market expansion rather than zero-sum competition. A rising Gulf tide lifts the broader Indo-Pacific art economy — and Singapore, as its most sophisticated and best-connected node, is structurally positioned to benefit from that expansion, provided it continues to invest in the collector relationships, logistical infrastructure, and curatorial quality that distinguish its art market offer.
Key Sources
Art Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report (2025 edition, covering 2024 data). Art Basel & UBS Survey of Global Collecting (2024). Art Newspaper, ‘Art Market 2025 Review: All Eyes on the Gulf’ (December 2025). Art Net News, ‘Singapore’s Art Scene Flourishes’ (January 2025). The Art Newspaper, ‘Singapore Steps Up: Art SG 2025’ (January 2025). Maddox Gallery, ‘Emerging Markets: Middle East and Asia’ (2025). St Andrews Economist, ‘Asia’s Art Market Takes Centre Stage’ (December 2025). MyArtBroker, ‘Trends in the Asian Art Market 2025.’ AFP / Straits Times, ‘Art and the Deal: Market Slump Pushes Galleries to the Gulf’ (February 2026).